Erie County vs. New York
Comparative Trends Analysis:
Gross Domestic Product Growth and Change, 2001-2020
Introduction
Erie County vs. New York
Erie County:
2020 GDP = $59,666,613K
2020 Percent of State = 3.5%
New York:
2020 GDP = $1,724,759,077K
2020 Percent of U.S. = 8.3%
Nationally, GDP (Gross Domestic Product) is widely regarded as the foremost blue-chip barometer for tracking and calibrating the economic performance of the economy nationwide. Like its closely followed national counterpart, the GDP of Erie County is the most comprehensive measure of output of all goods and services produced by labor and property located within Erie County. It is a market valuation of the goods and services-both private and public-produced within a regional economy.
Unlike the widely and frequently reported employment and job numbers that measure labor as one of the units of input into production, GDP is a valuation of the output. Also, while County Personal Income is representative of the "purchasing power" of those that reside within a county, think of Gross Domestic Product as representative of the "producing power" of that county.
For a more detailed and technical explanation of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by County compiled by the Regional Product Branch of Bureau of Economic Analysis please refer to the A Primer on Local Area Gross Domestic Product Methodology article found on the BEA website.

BEA: Definition

GDP by county is the county counterpart of the Nation's gross domestic product (GDP), the Bureau's featured and most comprehensive measure of U.S. economic activity. GDP by county is derived as the sum of the GDP originating in all the industries in a county.

The statistics of real GDP by county are prepared in chained (2012) dollars. Real GDP by county is an inflation-adjusted measure of each county's gross product that is based on national prices for the goods and services produced within that county. The statistics of real GDP by county and of quantity indexes with a base year of 2012 were derived by applying national chain-type price indexes to the current-dollar GDP-by-county values for the 64 detailed NAICS-based industries for 1997 forward.

The chain-type index formula that is used in the national accounts is then used to calculate the values of total real GDP by county and of real GDP by county at more aggregated industry levels. Real GDP by county may reflect a substantial volume of output that is sold to other counties and regions. To the extent that a county's output is produced and sold in national markets at relatively uniform prices (or sold locally at national prices), real GDP by state captures the differences across states that reflect the relative differences in the mix of goods and services that the counties produce. However, real GDP by county does not capture geographic differences in the prices of goods and services that are produced and sold locally.

United States. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Regional Product Division.
BEA News Release (GDP by State). 2013. Web.
https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gdp-state.

BEA: Relation of GDP by county to U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP)

An industry's GDP by county, or its value added, in practice, is calculated as the sum of incomes earned by labor and capital and the costs incurred in the production of goods and services. That is, it includes the wages and salaries that workers earn, the income earned by individual or joint entrepreneurs as well as by corporations, and business taxes such as sales, property, and Federal excise taxes that count as a business expense.

GDP is calculated as the sum of what consumers, businesses, and government spend on final goods and services, plus investment and net foreign trade. In theory, incomes earned should equal what is spent, but due to different data sources, income earned, usually referred to as gross domestic income (GDI), does not always equal what is spent (GDP). The difference is referred to as the "statistical discrepancy."

Starting with the 2004 comprehensive revision, BEA's annual industry accounts and its GDP-by-county accounts allocate the statistical discrepancy across all private-sector industries. Therefore, the GDP-by-county statistics are now conceptually more similar to the GDP statistics in the national accounts than they had been in the past.

U.S. real GDP by county for the advance year, 2012, may differ from the Annual Industry Accounts' GDP by industry and, hence NIPA (National Income and Product Account) GDP, because of different sources and vintages of data used to estimate GDP by state and NIPA GDP. For the revised years of 2009-2011, U.S. GDP by county is nearly identical to GDP by industry except for small differences resulting from the GDP-by-county accounts' exclusion of overseas Federal military and civilian activity (because it cannot be attributed to a particular state). The GDP-by-industry statistics are identical to those from the 2012 annual revision of the NIPAs, released in July 2012. However, because of revisions since July 2012, GDP in the NIPAs may differ from U.S. GDP by county.

United States. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Regional Product Division.
BEA News Release (GDP by State). 2013. Web.
https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gdp-state.

Erie County Gross Domestic Product, 2002-2020
Current vs. Chained 2012 Dollars (Millions)
Erie County Gross Domestic Product, 2002-2020
Current vs. Chained 2012 Dollars (Millions)
Figure 1.
Figure 1 depicts Erie County's annual gross domestic product over 2002-2020 in current and constant (chained 2012) dollars. Constant dollar measurements remove the effects of inflation. They allow for comparison of changes in the real total good and services output of Erie County over time.
When measured in current dollars, Erie County's GDP increased 76.9%, from $33,722M in 2002 to $59,667M in 2020. When measured in constant 2012 dollars to adjust for inflation, it advanced 19.2%, from $41,950M in 2002 to $50,006M in 2020.
Real Gross Domestic Product, 2001-2020 (Millions)
Real Gross Domestic Product, 2001-2020 (Millions)
Figure 2.
Figure 2 traces Erie County's and New York's annual real gross domestic product for the period 2001-2020 to illustrate real gross domestic product patterns over time. During this 20-year period, Erie County's real gross domestic product rose from $41,207M in 2001 to $50,006M in 2020, for a net gain of $8,798M, or 21.4%. In comparison, New York's real GDP advanced from $1,112,794M in 2001 to $1,420,141M in 2020, for a net gain of $307,347M, or 27.6%.
Real Gross Domestic Product Indices (2001=100): 2001-2020
Real Gross Domestic Product Indices (2001=100): 2001-2020
Figure 3.
Figure 3 portrays Erie County's real gross domestic product growth in a broader context by offering direct comparisons across time with New York, the United States. The growth indices shown here express each region's real gross domestic product in 2001 as a base figure of 100, and the real gross domestic products in later years as a percentage of the 2001 base figure. This method allows for more direct comparison of differences in real gross domestic product growth between regions that may differ vastly in size.
Erie County's overall real GDP growth was 21.4% over 2001-2020 trailed New York's increase of 27.6%, and fell below the United States' increase of 38.6%.
Gross Domestic Product as a Percent of the New York Total: 2001-2020
Gross Domestic Product as a Percent of the New York Total: 2001-2020
Figure 4.
Another interesting and insightful way of highlighting the gross domestic product growth of Erie County is to trace its individual percentage contributions to New York's statewide gross domestic product over time, as shown in Figure 4. A rising share means a region's gross domestic product grew faster, or declined less, than New York's gross domestic product, while a declining share shows it grew more slowly.
In 2001, Erie County's GDP totaled 3.7% of New York's GDP, while in 2020 it comprised 3.5% thereby yielding a -0.2% share-shift.
   
 
Gross Domestic Product Share-Shift
2020 vs. 2001
 
Share-
Shift*
 
2020
vs.
2001
-0.24%
=
3.46%
-
3.70%
 
   
Erie County Real Gross Domestic Product:
Annual Percent Change, 2002-2020
Erie County Real Gross Domestic Product:
Annual Percent Change, 2002-2020
Figure 5.
Figure 5 shows the short-run pattern of Erie County's real gross domestic product growth by tracking the year-to-year percent change over 2002-2020. The average annual percent change for the entire 19-year period is also traced on this chart to provide a benchmark for gauging periods of relative high--and relative low--growth against the backdrop of the long-term average.
On average, Erie County's real GDP grew at an annual rate of 1.04% over 2002-2020. The county posted its highest growth in 2012 (3.75%) and posted its lowest growth in 2020 (-4.00%). In 2020, Erie County's real GDP declined by -4.00%
Erie County Real Gross Domestic Product:
Annual Percent Change and Decade Averages Over 2002-2020
Erie County Real Gross Domestic Product:
Annual Percent Change and Decade Averages Over 2002-2020
Figure 6.
Figure 6 again shows the annual percent change in Erie County's real gross domestic product since 2002, but this time they are displayed with average growth rates for the decade of the 2000s, and 2020.
During 2002-2009, Erie County's annual real GDP growth rate averaged 1.48%. It averaged 1.19% in the 2010s, and -4.00% in 2020.
Real Gross Domestic Product Growth:
Average Annual Percent Change by Decade
Real Gross Domestic Product Growth:
Average Annual Percent Change by Decade
Figure 7.
Figure 7 compares the decade average growth rates for Erie County noted in the previous graph with the corresponding decade averages for New York and the nation. As the chart reveals, Erie County's average annual real gross domestic product growth outgained New York's average during the 2000s (1.48% vs. 1.28%), and lagged New York's average over the 10 year period of the last decade, 2010-2019 (1.19% vs. 1.97%). In 2020, Erie County's growth has outgained New York's average (-4.00% vs. -4.99%).
Finally, relative to nationwide real gross domestic product growth trends, Erie County lagged the nation throughout the 2000s (1.48% vs. 1.77%), and lagged the nation over 2010-2019 (1.19% vs. 2.25%). In 2020, growth for Erie County has recorded under the national average (-4.00% vs. -3.40%).
   
 
Real* Gross Domestic Product Growth:
Average Annual Percent Change
 
 
 
1.04
1.48
1.19
-4.00
 
1.31
1.28
1.97
-4.99
 
1.75
1.77
2.25
-3.40
 
   

Interactive TableTip: To augment your analysis click on the column headers in the following table to rank and/or sort the data.

   
 
Erie County:
Gross Domestic Product, 2001-2020
 
2001
 
32,486,833
0.851
41,207,397
100.0
N
3.70
2002
 
33,721,895
0.866
41,950,246
101.8
1.80
3.79
2003
 
34,834,769
0.878
42,503,880
103.1
1.32
3.82
2004
 
36,811,419
0.905
43,842,101
106.4
3.15
3.81
2005
 
37,733,303
0.903
43,753,197
106.2
-0.20
3.71
2006
 
39,764,612
0.924
44,758,122
108.6
2.30
3.70
2007
 
41,430,697
0.937
45,376,278
110.1
1.38
3.70
2008
 
42,898,281
0.953
46,145,238
112.0
1.69
3.84
2009
 
43,962,038
0.957
46,329,987
112.4
0.40
3.79
2010
 
45,561,455
0.980
47,447,767
115.1
2.41
3.72
2011
 
45,511,400
0.964
46,680,407
113.3
-1.62
3.65
2012
 
48,430,623
1.000
48,430,623
117.5
3.75
3.65
2013
 
49,246,038
0.994
48,149,617
116.8
-0.58
3.61
2014
 
51,615,858
1.019
49,359,149
119.8
2.51
3.61
2015
 
54,161,667
1.042
50,452,626
122.4
2.22
3.64
2016
 
55,583,964
1.048
50,776,338
123.2
0.64
3.58
2017
 
56,097,575
1.041
50,406,869
122.3
-0.73
3.50
2018
 
58,314,491
1.055
51,092,971
124.0
1.36
3.44
2019
 
60,829,320
1.076
52,088,534
126.4
1.95
3.42
2020
 
59,666,613
1.033
50,005,858
121.4
-4.00
3.46
Source: Calculations by the New York Regional Economic Analysis Project (NY-REAP)
with data provided by the U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
November 2021
REAP_PI_CA1400_2000_PSN
 
   

Interactive TableTip: To augment your analysis click on the column headers in the following table to rank and/or sort the data.

   
 
New York:
Gross Domestic Product, 2001-2020
 
2001
 
878,346,480
0.838
1,112,794,411
100.0
N
8.30
2002
 
890,258,115
0.833
1,106,150,782
99.4
-0.60
8.15
2003
 
912,474,648
0.836
1,110,613,081
99.8
0.40
7.96
2004
 
967,151,949
0.861
1,144,125,077
102.8
3.02
7.92
2005
 
1,016,037,549
0.880
1,168,891,067
105.0
2.16
7.79
2006
 
1,075,154,588
0.903
1,199,276,889
107.8
2.60
7.78
2007
 
1,119,381,500
0.910
1,208,564,640
108.6
0.77
7.73
2008
 
1,116,591,020
0.896
1,190,080,854
106.9
-1.53
7.56
2009
 
1,160,081,314
0.927
1,230,672,310
110.6
3.41
8.01
2010
 
1,223,529,685
0.962
1,277,466,777
114.8
3.80
8.13
2011
 
1,247,605,768
0.963
1,279,527,097
115.0
0.16
8.00
2012
 
1,328,233,509
1.000
1,328,233,509
119.4
3.81
8.17
2013
 
1,365,529,022
1.001
1,329,376,306
119.5
0.09
8.11
2014
 
1,430,923,347
1.019
1,353,410,409
121.6
1.81
8.15
2015
 
1,487,627,635
1.034
1,373,642,978
123.4
1.49
8.17
2016
 
1,551,354,076
1.056
1,403,230,531
126.1
2.15
8.30
2017
 
1,603,903,390
1.069
1,419,583,553
127.6
1.17
8.23
2018
 
1,694,957,874
1.098
1,457,995,753
131.0
2.71
8.26
2019
 
1,777,751,774
1.125
1,494,736,441
134.3
2.52
8.32
2020
 
1,724,759,077
1.069
1,420,141,014
127.6
-4.99
8.25
Source: Calculations by the New York Regional Economic Analysis Project (NY-REAP)
with data provided by the U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
November 2021
REAP_PI_CA1400_2000_PSN
 
   

Interactive TableTip: To augment your analysis click on the column headers in the following table to rank and/or sort the data.

   
 
United States:
Gross Domestic Product, 2001-2020
 
2001
 
10,581,929,000
0.816
13,263,417,000
100.0
N
2002
 
10,929,108,000
0.830
13,488,357,000
101.7
1.70
2003
 
11,456,450,000
0.853
13,865,519,000
104.5
2.80
2004
 
12,217,196,000
0.886
14,399,696,000
108.6
3.85
2005
 
13,039,197,000
0.917
14,901,269,000
112.3
3.48
2006
 
13,815,583,000
0.942
15,315,943,000
115.5
2.78
2007
 
14,474,228,000
0.961
15,623,871,000
117.8
2.01
2008
 
14,769,862,000
0.962
15,642,962,000
117.9
0.12
2009
 
14,478,067,000
0.937
15,236,262,000
114.9
-2.60
2010
 
15,048,970,000
0.963
15,648,991,000
118.0
2.71
2011
 
15,599,731,000
0.978
15,891,534,000
119.8
1.55
2012
 
16,253,970,000
1.000
16,253,970,000
122.5
2.28
2013
 
16,843,196,000
1.018
16,553,348,000
124.8
1.84
2014
 
17,550,687,000
1.042
16,932,051,000
127.7
2.29
2015
 
18,206,023,000
1.070
17,390,295,000
131.1
2.71
2016
 
18,695,106,000
1.088
17,680,274,000
133.3
1.67
2017
 
19,479,623,000
1.112
18,079,084,000
136.3
2.26
2018
 
20,527,159,000
1.145
18,606,787,000
140.3
2.92
2019
 
21,372,582,000
1.171
19,032,672,000
143.5
2.29
2020
 
20,893,746,000
1.131
18,384,687,000
138.6
-3.40
Source: Calculations by the New York Regional Economic Analysis Project (NY-REAP)
with data provided by the U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
November 2021
REAP_PI_CA1400_2000_PN
 
   
Copyright © 2022. Pacific Northwest Regional Economic Analysis Project (PNREAP). All Rights Reserved.

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