The United States economy has generated an impressive number of jobs since the 1970s. The contrast between the nation's vigorous employment growth and the modest performance of other major industrial countries is striking. Despite this rosy track record, the real (inflation adjusted) wages and salaries of many workers have stagnated or slipped in recent years. This development has provoked concerns about the quality of new jobs. Structural shifts in the composition of employment--from high-wage goods-producing to low-wage services-related sectors--is the culprit most often cited for the deteriorating quality of jobs.

Regions vary greatly in the make-up of their labor force, in their industry composition of employment, and their economic experience. Reviewing and examining recent developments in average earnings per job in Herkimer County with comparisons to New York and the nation is an important first step in understanding the economic forces at play in Herkimer County.

Discussion: Average Annual Earnings Per Job are computed by dividing BEA total industry earnings estimates by the BEA total full- and part-time jobs estimates. No convenient or adequate means exist at the county or regional level for converting the job estimates to a full-time equivalent measure. So, interpret the average earnings per job estimates with caution in consideration of the following issues:

Average earnings per job within industries involving more part-time work is lower than industries involving more full-time work, although there could be little difference in the underlying wage of full-time workers. Such differences could also prevail between counties and regions. An increase in the proportion of part-time jobs over time may erode average earnings per job estimates, although full-time earnings per worker may have remained unchanged.

As with per capita income, average earnings per job may be subject to extreme short-run variation, especially in smaller counties. Major construction projects relating to building dams, nuclear power plants, and private plant construction projects have caused extreme fluctuations in many smaller counties. Such changes typify both small and large agriculture-dependent counties owing to the extreme annual variations in farm incomes. Also, Since average earnings per job are just a simple average, it does not account for variations in the distribution of earnings among high- vs. low-wage jobs.

Figure 1 depicts Herkimer County's annual average earnings per job over 1970-2022 in current and constant (2017) dollars. Constant dollar measurements remove the effects of inflation. They allow for comparison of changes in the real purchasing power of Herkimer County over time.

When measured in current dollars, Herkimer County's average earnings per job increased 644.69%, from $6,850 in 1970 to $51,009 in 2022. When measured in constant 2017 dollars to adjust for inflation, it advanced 26.85%, from $34,654 in 1970 to $43,957 in 2022.

Figure 2 traces Herkimer County's and New York's annual real average earnings per job for the period 1969-2022 to illustrate real average earnings per job patterns over time. During this 54-year period, Herkimer County's real average earnings per job rose from $34,878 in 1969 to $43,957 in 2022, for a net gain of $9,079, or 26.03%. In comparison, New York's real average earnings per job increased from $44,144 in 1969 to $77,665 in 2022, for a net advance of $33,522, or 75.94%.

Figure 3 portrays Herkimer County's real average earnings per job growth in a broader context by offering direct comparisons across time with New York, the United States. The growth indices shown here express each region's real average earnings per job in 1969 as a base figure of 100, and the real average earnings per jobs in later years as a percentage of the 1969 base figure. This method allows for more direct comparison of differences in real average earnings per job growth between regions that may differ vastly in size.

Herkimer County's overall real average earnings per job growth was 26.03% over 1969-2022 trailed New York's increase of 75.94%, and fell below the United States' increase of 62.26%.

Figure 4 portrays the trends for average earnings per job relative to the national average by tracing Herkimer County and New York average earnings per job as a percent of the national average over 1969-2022.

In 1969, Herkimer County's average earnings per job amounted to 91.74% of the national average; in 2022, it approximated 71.25%. Similarly, in 1969, New York's average earnings per job totaled 116.11% of the national average; in 2022, it consisted of 125.90%.

Figure 5 highlights the short-run pattern of Herkimer County's real average earnings per job growth by tracking the year-to-year percent change over 1970-2022. The average annual percent change for the entire 53-year period is also traced on this chart to provide a benchmark for gauging periods of relative high--and relative low--growth against the backdrop of the long-term average.

On average, Herkimer County's real average earnings per job grew at an annual rate of 0.48% over 1970-2022. The county posted its highest growth in 1984 (6.51%) and recorded its lowest growth in 2022 (-7.87%). In 2022, Herkimer County's real average earnings per job declined by -7.87%

Over the past five decades some counties have experienced extreme swings in growth, and often such swings have tended to coincide with the decades themselves. Figure 6 again traces the annual percent change in Herkimer County's real average earnings per job since 1970, but this time they are displayed with average growth rates for the decade of the 1970s, 1980s, 1990s, 2000s, 2010s, and 2020-2022.

During the 1970s, Herkimer County's annual real average earnings per job growth rate averaged -0.74%. It averaged 1.08% during the 1980s, 0.23% throughout the 1990s, 0.74% in the 2000s, 1.34% throughout the 2010s, -0.42% thus far this decade (2020-2022).

Figure 7 compares the decade average growth rates for Herkimer County noted in the previous graph with the corresponding decade averages for New York and the nation. As the chart reveals, Herkimer County's average annual real average earnings per job growth lagged New York's average in the 1970s (-0.74% vs. 0.56%), trailed New York's average throughout the 1980s (1.08% vs. 2.05%), recorded under New York's average throughout the 1990s (0.23% vs. 1.96%), registered above New York's average throughout the 2000s (0.74% vs. 0.33%), registered above New York's average throughout the 2010s (1.34% vs. 1.03%), and recorded under New York's average over the 3 year period of the current decade, 2020-2022 (-0.42% vs. -0.38%).

Finally, relative to nationwide real average earnings per job growth trends, Herkimer County fell below the nation during the 1970s (-0.74% vs. 0.89%), outpaced the nation during the 1980s (1.08% vs. 0.71%), lagged the nation in the 1990s (0.23% vs. 1.68%), exceeded the nation in the 2000s (0.74% vs. 0.72%), recorded above the nation over the 2010s (1.34% vs. 1.01%), and fell below the nation over 2020-2022 (-0.42% vs. -0.24%).